trains « Flightblogging.com

December 12, 2009

What happens to flights when the Oil runs Dry?

Filed under: Aviation Economics, Environmental Issues, Flights v. Trains — Tags: 42, Airlines, don't panic, environment, Flightmapping.com, flights, high speed trains, long haul, maglevs, map, oil, peak oil, planes, short haul, trains, travel, tube, united stations, Zug42 — ja @ 10:05 pm

Some people may want to bury their heads in the sand, and pretend that we can keep burning fossil fuels forever, but at Flightmapping.com, we’ve always taken the long term view, and wondered how medium to long haul journeys might adapt the challenges of Climate Change and oil price rises in the future. For the shortest journeys, we’ve essentially taken it as a no-brainer that most people will switch to high-speed rail, subject to a few small criteria which don’t always apply yet - especially here in the UK. And we’re not suggesting that trains will be able to walk on water just yet, although some of our youngest readers might be around to see a transatlantic tunnel appearing towards the end of this century!

So, to take aviation’s worst case scenario - that oil runs dry, and that biofuels are too costly to provide a commercially viable replacement, what do we do? Well, as a certain ultra-long haul cheapskates’ travel guide might say - Don’t Panic! Those pesky maglev trains might be able to provide the answer. Whereas flying is actually getting slower (Concorde has long gone, airlines are reducing speeds to save fuel, and let’s not get started on airport congestion), trains are progressively getting faster - with the Chinese having just launched a service from Wuhan capable of running at almost 400 kilometres per hour.

So this is what a global ‘tube’ network might start to look like from around 2050 - courtesy of our partner websites United Stations and Zug42.

htWorld Tube Map

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November 4, 2009

What does Warren Buffett’s train investment say about airlines?

Filed under: Budget airlines, Flights v. Trains, Ryanair, The Travel Business — Tags: Airlines, airlines bloodbath, airlines industry, BMI, bmibaby, BNSF, coal, deregulation, Europe, freight transport, high speed trains, Lufthansa, Michael O'Leary, Netjets, perfect storm, private jets, rail, rail industry, railfreight, Ryanair, style over substance, subsidies, the indefensible, three decades, trains, US Airways, US economy, USA, Warren Buffett, Wilbur Wright, Wright brothers — ja @ 8:09 am

So, Warren Buffett has invested some $26 billion buying American freight operator BNSF, with news commentators hailing this as an ‘all-in’ bet on the future of the US economy. But there’s more to it than that - it is, of course, a huge leap of faith into the future of railways, even if lumping coal isn’t exactly as glamarous as swish new high speed train sets. But Buffett has never been about style over substance, and trains in Europe are usually associated with massive subsidies.

In typical long-term Buffett style, he has talked about growth potential of rail in the USA over the next 3 decades, and even if this investment is in freight railways, there is no doubt that passenger rail networks will also see substantial development over this period.

Compare this to Buffett’s attitudes towards airlines, after he lost 75% of his $385 million investment in US Airways back in 1995. He pointed out that the he didn’t think the US airline business had ever made money - and this was in an industry without the kind of state carrier subsidies which were common elsewhere in the world. Buffett is quoted as saying, in respect of the Wright brothers’ first flight:

“If there had been a capitalist down there, the guy would have shot down Wilbur. One small step for mankind, and one huge step for capitalism.”

Has anything changed in the airline industry since 1995? Well, there’s been plenty of deregulation across the pond, and plenty of former big names are no longer with us. In Europe, we have Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary echoing many of Buffett’s sentiments, describing the current situation facing European airlines as a ‘bloodbath’, and the ‘perfect storm’. Of course, Ryanair are one of the few airlines to buck the trend, whereas this morning’s announcement from Lufthansa that they can’t find a suitable bidder for bmi, and that consequently bmibaby are shedding jobs hardly comes as a surprise.

Despite all this, Warren hasn’t been put off from investing in flying alltogether, having ditched his own private jet, aka ‘The Indefensible’ back in 1998, in favour of buying private jet hire company NetJets.

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September 9, 2009

The BNP v Eco-fundamentalists - both are equally fascist

Filed under: Aviation Economics, Environmental Issues, Flights v. Trains, The Travel Business — Tags: BNP, domestic flights, environment, environmental campaigns, flights, flying, trains, UK — ja @ 1:52 am

I have no problem with the vast-majority of environmental campaigners, but there are a dangerous few out there who seem to think it is perfectly reasonable to impose a total ban on all domestic flights within the UK. More worrying than this opinion being widespread is the way it is allowed out on news reports without any kind of counter-argument. Yet whenever there is a suggestion of the BNP getting more air time, there is uproar.

So what is so wrong with suggesting a ban on domestic flights, in the name of the environment? As the United Kingdom is made up of many islands, a sizeable portion of travel within her borders is always going to be made by air. Even over-land, there are many journeys which are totally unrealistic to make by rail, especially for business travellers wanting to head to important meetings and make it back in a day. People who think that it is an easy switch from air to rail tend not to be the ones that take the trains all that often.

Where rail services have improved, such as between London and Manchester, the proportion of people travelling by train has increased, but there will always be some people who will want to choose to fly, or who want to take a plane because the next step of their journey is an onward flight to another destination. As the network currently stands, travelling by train from Manchester to Heathrow is a great deal less convenient than flying.

Of course, some communication can be done by electronic means, but if travel broadens the mind, then those people who seek to prevent people from travelling must have very narrow minds. Except that they masquerade as intelligent, educated people acting in our best interests. At least we know what we are getting with the BNP - mindless thugs who want to see certain sectors of the population sent away. But we should never forget that freedom to move within our borders is just as important as the freedom to cross borders. I have spent time in Saudi Arabia, where we had to get a ‘50k pass’ to travel internally, and it was a bureaucratic nightmare.

The environmental damage caused by flying is already healthily compensated for by existing APD (Air Passenger Duty), which is levied twice on internal flights - both on the outbound, and on the inbound journey. Even moderate increases in APD, when not counter-balanced by our European neighbours, result in a huge discouragement to travel within the UK, as flights abroad are proportionally taxed at a lower rate.

So by all means, let’s have a reasoned debate about choices in travel mode, and about their environmental impacts. But let’s not be fooled by people who think an outright ban on domestic flights, or even steep increases in their taxes, is remotely in the UK’s best interest.

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